Ulaanbaatar, April 14, 2026 /MONTSAME/. The MONTSAME National News Agency, in cooperation with MICC Mongolia International Capital Corporation LLC, has launched a weekly review of Mongolia’s domestic capital market and economic developments, to be published at the beginning of each week.

Weekly Capital Market and Economic Review

(2026.04.06–2026.04.12)

MONGOLIAN STOCK EXCHANGE

During the week, a total of 7.4 million securities worth MNT 6.4 billion were traded on the Mongolian Stock Exchange. Among them, Golomt Bank JSC, Khan Bank JSC, Innovation Investment JSC, Mongolian Stock Exchange JSC, and Trade and Development Bank JSC led in trading value.

During this period, a number of block trades were executed. In particular, 498,000 shares of Golomt Bank JSC (GLMT) were traded at MNT 1,245 per share, totaling MNT 620 million.

As of last week, the Mongolian Stock Exchange indices closed lower. The TOP-20 Index fell by -1.27% to 50,119.16 points, the MSE A Index declined by -0.69% to 19,005.34 points, and the MSE B Index dropped by -2.26% to 14,159.61 points. The relatively sharp decline in the MSE B Index reflects stronger selling pressure on small and mid-cap, less liquid stocks. Meanwhile, the milder decline in the MSE A Index indicates that large, actively traded companies remained relatively stable. Market movements during the week were mainly influenced by seasonal and technical factors, with no signs of deterioration in fundamental conditions.

During the period, several companies entered ex-dividend status, leading to price adjustments in line with dividend payouts. In addition, announcements of shareholders’ meetings and the opening of shareholder registration also influenced short-term investor positioning and trading activity. Dividend-related price adjustments and shifts in short-term investor behavior were the main drivers of the market’s negative weekly performance.

INFLATION RE-ACCELERATES, REACHING 7.3%

In March 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 7.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. Higher fuel prices and increased food prices mainly drove this rise.

Due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, the prices of fuels other than AI-92 gasoline increased, putting pressure on transportation and logistics costs. At the same time, rising meat and meat product prices suggest that inflationary pressures may persist. Food prices nationwide increased by 13.9–15.2% compared to the same period last year, indicating that food dominates the inflation structure. Specifically, meat and meat products increased by 23% year-on-year, making the largest contribution to the CPI. This is likely linked to seasonal supply conditions, higher transport costs, and import-related effects.

In Ulaanbaatar, inflation also re-accelerated in March, rising by 1.5% month-on-month and 7.3% year-on-year. The main driver of inflation in the capital remained food prices, which increased by 15.3% in March—the highest level since September 2023. Experts warn that if fuel and meat price increases continue, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months.

MONGOLIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH: STRONG EARLY-YEAR PERFORMANCE AND MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK

Mongolia’s economy recorded strong growth in the first two months of 2026, supported by mining sector activity and seasonal factors.

According to preliminary data from the National Statistics Office, real GDP grew by 7.6% year-on-year, driven mainly by a 32.3% increase in mining and extractive sector value added and a 4.2% increase in the services sector. Overall, the economy grew by 8.6% in January and 7.6% in February.

However, according to the World Bank’s latest Mongolia economic outlook, the rapid expansion seen in 2025 is expected to slow to around 5.0% in 2026. In the previous year, strong copper production at Oyu Tolgoi and a sharp recovery in the livestock sector following a harsh winter offset declining coal exports and weak foreign investment, bringing growth to 6.9%. This year, as these exceptional factors normalize, growth is expected to moderate.

Going forward, domestic demand and government-led projects will continue to support activity, but external risks such as geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and commodity price volatility may negatively affect growth. The World Bank also noted that as major mining construction phases conclude, foreign direct investment may slow, and private investment is likely to remain limited in the near term.

Domestically, expansionary fiscal policy may support growth in the short term but could increase inflationary pressure and widen the current account deficit. This may lead to continued tight monetary policy. Under these conditions, inflation is expected to average around 8.5% in 2026.

TRADE FINANCE FORUM HELD

Mongolia’s financial sector is increasingly shifting focus from traditional loan growth toward export and trade finance, supporting foreign-exchange-earning sectors through lower-risk, flow-based financing.

In this context, Trade and Development Bank organized the “Trade Finance Forum” last week under the theme “Resource Economy,” discussing trends in natural resources, energy, and international trade finance, as well as opportunities to reduce costs. The forum focused on practical solutions to enhance clients’ competitiveness through banking products and services.

Globally, driven by technological advancement, renewable energy, and AI-based economic expansion, demand for strategic metals such as copper, lithium, and rare earth elements is expected to increase by 30–40% by 2030. While this presents opportunities for resource-rich countries, experts emphasized that finance, trade, and policy coordination will be critical to turning these opportunities into real economic gains.

For Mongolia, the mining sector remains the backbone of the economy, and there is a growing need for a more stable and efficient trade and financing system. As of 2025, Trade and Development Bank alone accounted for 32% of the banking sector’s mining-related financing, of which 60.7% was allocated to gold, 19.6% to coal, 12.3% to iron ore, and 7.4% to other minerals. This indicates gradual diversification in the financing structure. Overall, the growth of trade finance is seen as an early signal of a shift toward supporting non-mining exports through financial channels.